03-17-2025, 02:29 PM
News Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels
<p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjQtMTEvMDE5Mzc3MmYtY2NiZS03ZGExLTg3NjctMDNmMDgzM2U5Nzc1.jpg"></p><p><p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjQtMTEvMDE5Mzc3MmYtY2NiZS03ZGExLTg3NjctMDNmMDgzM2U5Nzc1.jpg" alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally"></p><p>Toncoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/toncoin-price-index" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/toncoin-price-index">TON</a>) has surged by over 50% in the past week, fueled by <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/telegram-founder-pavel-durov-leaves-france" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/telegram-founder-pavel-durov-leaves-france">news</a> that Telegram founder Pavel Durov has been granted permission to leave France for Dubai.<figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959eb9-b0fc-7bfd-88f0-66c6939a9cd7" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>TON’s bullish reversal, especially after falling to $2.35, its lowest level in a year, has traders eyeing key price levels, with crypto analyst Crypto Patel <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/CryptoPatel/status/1900928446366445680" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/CryptoPatel/status/1900928446366445680">highlighting</a> a "great entry zone" for long-term investors.</p><h2>TON is eyeing a 100% rally in 2025</h2><p>As Crypto Patel notes, TON’s price has “perfectly bounced” from its support level of around $2.50. </p><p>Furthermore, the support falls inside the $2.40-3.00 area that served as resistance in December 2022-April 2023 and September 2023-April 2024 periods. The analyst argues that the area now served as a “great entry zone,” citing TON’s ongoing rebound from the same range.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959e8c-356c-7b89-af99-29ff63e31b07" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Crypto Patel</em> </p></figcaption></figure><p>A decisive rebound from the $2.40-3.00 zone could have TON target its prevailing descending trendline resistance in the coming weeks, which may push its price toward $5 by June or July.</p><p><em><strong>Related: </strong></em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/wallet-in-telegram-50-tokens-eth-xrp-earn-program" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/wallet-in-telegram-50-tokens-eth-xrp-earn-program"><em><strong>Wallet in Telegram to list 50 tokens and launch yield program</strong></em></a></p><p>The upside outlook aligns with analyst <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/TheProfitMindd/status/1900954655053804040" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/TheProfitMindd/status/1900954655053804040">Profit Mind’s falling wedge setup</a>, which anticipates the Toncoin price to grow toward the $6 upside target if it breaks above the wedge’s upper trendline.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959e91-40ab-724f-b46a-71ceecedc2f4" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Falling wedges typically resolve when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.</p><p>Analyst Crypto Billion further anticipates a bullish reversal in TON markets, citing its oversold <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal">relative strength index (RSI)</a> as a primary catalyst for potential long-term accumulation.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959e99-bd22-75b1-a5e5-69f641b4a24e" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>Source: </em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/Billion_Crypto1/status/1900872857816813696" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/Billion_Crypto1/status/1900872857816813696"><em>Crypto Billion</em></a></p></figcaption></figure><p><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cryptoquant.com/analytics/query/670c1bc6c3308838d28e36f5?v=670c1bc6c3308838d28e36f8" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://cryptoquant.com/analytics/query/670c1bc6c3308838d28e36f5?v=670c1bc6c3308838d28e36f8">Toncoin’s Sharpe ratio</a>, a financial metric used to measure an asset’s risk-adjusted returns, further indicates oversold conditions in the TON market.</p><p>As of March 16, the 180-day average ratio had dropped below -25, as denoted in blue. In the past, TON has undergone bullish reversals largely when its Sharpe ratio turned blue, as seen in late 2022 and mid-2023.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959eac-2c11-7701-af2d-ab15ca52171e" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON Sharpe ratio (180 days). Source: CryptoQuant</em></p></figcaption></figure><h2>TON shorts remain dominant</h2><p>In the derivatives market, Toncoin is witnessing a <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/toncoin-open-interest-surgest-telegram-founder-pavel-durov" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/toncoin-open-interest-surgest-telegram-founder-pavel-durov">resurgence in its open interest (OI)</a> — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled TON contracts such as options and futures.</p><p>As of March 16, TON’s OI was around $169.12 million, compared to $80.75 million just five days prior. </p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959eb4-4b89-7126-9714-9aa0f5152b73" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON Futures’ OI and funding rates. Source: </em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/TON" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/TON"><em>CoinGlass</em></a></p></figcaption></figure><p>On the flip side, TON’s weekly funding rates are treading around negative territory — they marginally rose into positive territory after plunging to -0.678% earlier on March 16.</p><p>When funding rates turn negative as OI rises, it often reflects bearish sentiment with aggressive shorting. The 30-day liquidation map tracking TON/USDT on Bybit risks nearly $10 million in long liquidations if the Toncoin price falls toward $2.54.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959ebd-3949-7f02-bfc0-6ac37ad8f667" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>Bybit TON/USDT 30-day liquidation map (as of March 16). Source: </em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationMap" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationMap"><em>Coinglass</em></a></p></figcaption></figure><p>Conversely, the same liquidation map reveals that approximately $12 million worth of short positions could be at risk if TON surpasses the $4 mark. </p><p>If this scenario plays out, the cascading effect of forced buybacks could accelerate Toncoin’s upward momentum, sending the price to the aforementioned levels. </p><p class="post-content__disclaimer" type="">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.</p><template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook" label="Subscription Form: Markets Outlook"></template></p>
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https://cointelegraph.com/news/toncoin-g...er_inbound
<p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjQtMTEvMDE5Mzc3MmYtY2NiZS03ZGExLTg3NjctMDNmMDgzM2U5Nzc1.jpg"></p><p><p style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 15px; width:240px;"><img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjQtMTEvMDE5Mzc3MmYtY2NiZS03ZGExLTg3NjctMDNmMDgzM2U5Nzc1.jpg" alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally"></p><p>Toncoin (<a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/toncoin-price-index" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/toncoin-price-index">TON</a>) has surged by over 50% in the past week, fueled by <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/telegram-founder-pavel-durov-leaves-france" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/telegram-founder-pavel-durov-leaves-france">news</a> that Telegram founder Pavel Durov has been granted permission to leave France for Dubai.<figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959eb9-b0fc-7bfd-88f0-66c6939a9cd7" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>TON’s bullish reversal, especially after falling to $2.35, its lowest level in a year, has traders eyeing key price levels, with crypto analyst Crypto Patel <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/CryptoPatel/status/1900928446366445680" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/CryptoPatel/status/1900928446366445680">highlighting</a> a "great entry zone" for long-term investors.</p><h2>TON is eyeing a 100% rally in 2025</h2><p>As Crypto Patel notes, TON’s price has “perfectly bounced” from its support level of around $2.50. </p><p>Furthermore, the support falls inside the $2.40-3.00 area that served as resistance in December 2022-April 2023 and September 2023-April 2024 periods. The analyst argues that the area now served as a “great entry zone,” citing TON’s ongoing rebound from the same range.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959e8c-356c-7b89-af99-29ff63e31b07" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Crypto Patel</em> </p></figcaption></figure><p>A decisive rebound from the $2.40-3.00 zone could have TON target its prevailing descending trendline resistance in the coming weeks, which may push its price toward $5 by June or July.</p><p><em><strong>Related: </strong></em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/wallet-in-telegram-50-tokens-eth-xrp-earn-program" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/wallet-in-telegram-50-tokens-eth-xrp-earn-program"><em><strong>Wallet in Telegram to list 50 tokens and launch yield program</strong></em></a></p><p>The upside outlook aligns with analyst <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/TheProfitMindd/status/1900954655053804040" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/TheProfitMindd/status/1900954655053804040">Profit Mind’s falling wedge setup</a>, which anticipates the Toncoin price to grow toward the $6 upside target if it breaks above the wedge’s upper trendline.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959e91-40ab-724f-b46a-71ceecedc2f4" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView</em></p></figcaption></figure><p>Falling wedges typically resolve when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the pattern’s maximum height.</p><p>Analyst Crypto Billion further anticipates a bullish reversal in TON markets, citing its oversold <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-3-ways-the-relative-strength-index-rsi-can-be-used-as-a-sell-signal">relative strength index (RSI)</a> as a primary catalyst for potential long-term accumulation.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959e99-bd22-75b1-a5e5-69f641b4a24e" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>Source: </em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://x.com/Billion_Crypto1/status/1900872857816813696" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://x.com/Billion_Crypto1/status/1900872857816813696"><em>Crypto Billion</em></a></p></figcaption></figure><p><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cryptoquant.com/analytics/query/670c1bc6c3308838d28e36f5?v=670c1bc6c3308838d28e36f8" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://cryptoquant.com/analytics/query/670c1bc6c3308838d28e36f5?v=670c1bc6c3308838d28e36f8">Toncoin’s Sharpe ratio</a>, a financial metric used to measure an asset’s risk-adjusted returns, further indicates oversold conditions in the TON market.</p><p>As of March 16, the 180-day average ratio had dropped below -25, as denoted in blue. In the past, TON has undergone bullish reversals largely when its Sharpe ratio turned blue, as seen in late 2022 and mid-2023.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959eac-2c11-7701-af2d-ab15ca52171e" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON Sharpe ratio (180 days). Source: CryptoQuant</em></p></figcaption></figure><h2>TON shorts remain dominant</h2><p>In the derivatives market, Toncoin is witnessing a <a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/toncoin-open-interest-surgest-telegram-founder-pavel-durov" rel="" target="_self" text="null" title="https://cointelegraph.com/news/toncoin-open-interest-surgest-telegram-founder-pavel-durov">resurgence in its open interest (OI)</a> — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled TON contracts such as options and futures.</p><p>As of March 16, TON’s OI was around $169.12 million, compared to $80.75 million just five days prior. </p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959eb4-4b89-7126-9714-9aa0f5152b73" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>TON Futures’ OI and funding rates. Source: </em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/TON" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/TON"><em>CoinGlass</em></a></p></figcaption></figure><p>On the flip side, TON’s weekly funding rates are treading around negative territory — they marginally rose into positive territory after plunging to -0.678% earlier on March 16.</p><p>When funding rates turn negative as OI rises, it often reflects bearish sentiment with aggressive shorting. The 30-day liquidation map tracking TON/USDT on Bybit risks nearly $10 million in long liquidations if the Toncoin price falls toward $2.54.</p><figure><img alt="Toncoin in 'great entry zone' as Pavel Durov's France exit fuels TON price rally" src="https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-03/01959ebd-3949-7f02-bfc0-6ac37ad8f667" title=""><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><p><em>Bybit TON/USDT 30-day liquidation map (as of March 16). Source: </em><a data-ct-non-breakable="null" href="https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationMap" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" text="null" title="https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationMap"><em>Coinglass</em></a></p></figcaption></figure><p>Conversely, the same liquidation map reveals that approximately $12 million worth of short positions could be at risk if TON surpasses the $4 mark. </p><p>If this scenario plays out, the cascading effect of forced buybacks could accelerate Toncoin’s upward momentum, sending the price to the aforementioned levels. </p><p class="post-content__disclaimer" type="">This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.</p><template data-name="subscription_form" data-type="markets_outlook" label="Subscription Form: Markets Outlook"></template></p>
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https://cointelegraph.com/news/toncoin-g...er_inbound